MIDDLE EAST September 2011 - February 2012
Issued: August 2011
The IRI has prepared this experimental Climate Outlook for Middle East for September 2011 - February 2012. Of relevance in the preparation of this outlook is a moderate likelihood that the central and east-central tropical Pacific SSTs will be slightly cooler than average during the first forecast period, indicating cool-neutral ENSO conditions, with negative anomalies slowly strengthening over the course of the four forecast periods. The far eastern tropical Pacific SSTs are predicted to be slightly above average for the first forecast period, slowly becoming below average by the fourth period. Weak La Nina conditions are indicated for the third and fourth periods. The far western tropical Pacific SSTs are predicted to be slightly above average during the four forecast periods. Such tropical Pacific conditions are indicated in the SST predictions on which these climate forecasts are based (SSTs). See the IRI's ENSO update for a discussion on the ENSO outlook (see IRI Probabilistic ENSO forecast). Near-average SST is predicted most of the equatorial Indian Ocean during the four forecast periods, except for very slightly below average for the fourth period. SSTs in the tropical Atlantic are predicted to be near-average during all four forecast periods, but the north tropical Atlantic is predicted to be slightly above average during the first two forecast periods. (September-November 2011, October-December 2011, November-January 2012, December-February 2012).
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